National Signing Day

rivals national signing day.jpg

Source: Rivals.com

College football National Signing Day is the first day that a high school senior can sign a binding National Letter of Intent for college football with a school that is a member of the NCAA, the main governing body for college sports in the United States.

National Signing Day has become a phenomenon. The athletes get their 15 minutes of fame. Football coaches lobby hard for top ranked recruits to sign with their program. Some will do anything to get a recruit. 

At the end of the day, the media will focus on what program 'won' the contest: who recruited the top ranked class. The rank of the athlete, a one star to a five star, is conducted by outside services like Rivals.com. Rivals then ranks the overall signing class, based on the sum of all the individual ranks. 

At the end of the day, a program will be ranked based on what some outside source thinks of the recruiting class, irregardless of how those individual recruits fit within the program. And, that is what will get the attention. 

That may sound familiar.

As with portfolio management, people are often focusing on the wrong things. I find that most people don't even know how the ranking services quantify the ranking. Is it qualitative? Is it quantitative? Or, is is some combination? I believe the best coaches and football programs operate their own proprietary ranking system based on the factors they believe are most important. 

ETF Relative Strength during a market trend transition

Price momentum sometimes reverses, sharply. The snapshot of the relative strength table below show a result of more than 1,000 ETFs ranked by their 6 month price change. Those in the image are the ETFs that had the lowest 6 month relative strength. For example, the worst 6 month momentum is down -49.91% the past 6 months. As you see, however, they have all have high 3 month price momentum. If a system applied a momentum ranking system that defines 'relative strength' as 6 month rate of change, it would probably have a materially different portfolio than if its parameter is 3 months. 

 

ETF 6 Month Momentum vs 3 Mo.jpg

In the table below, we have again ranked the ETF universe by 6 month momentum, but this time I show the return for the highest 6 month relative strength. You may notice that the strength of their price trends hasn't been so strong more recently.

ETF strong 6 momentum now poor relative strength.jpg

These observations are a normal element of relative strength ranking after a major trend change or high volatility. That is, about 6 months ago world markets were in a very volatile state and many markets were declining sharply as evidenced by the table. Since that time, some markets have reversed. As evidenced by these tables, some have reversed sharply. Whether or not a trend system hooks on to them depends on how adaptive the system is. 

catching the big trend.jpg

Catching a big one.  (click for image source)

Don't get too aroused by the size of the price change - they magnify the variation between trend periods because they are mostly leveraged ETFs, which are far too volatile for most investors.

Trending in Relative Strength: Rules of Conquering the Gym

I noticed "The 27 Rules of Conquering the Gym" by Jason Gay is the strongest trending article in the Wall Street Journal over the weekend. He offered some truths about making a gym work for you.

The "Most Popular" table ranks the articles that have been read the most. It's a popularity contest and it's a relative strength rank. As people click on or read an article more, it is evidence of higher demand for that article, so it gets pushed to the top of the rank. Those at the top have the highest demand - they are the most popular. We can think of ranking world markets and securities that same way. If you want to know which have the strongest trends or relative strength, we can sort them by an equation to define the trend strength. It could be as simple as a rate of change in price over a period like 3, 6, 9, or 12 months. If you manage a portfolio with the relative strength method, you want to have some basis behind why you would buy what has been going up in price and sell what is weakening. There are over 300 academic studies with evidence that relative price strength trends persist: what has been going up in the past 3-12 months tends to continue and what has been weak tends to continue for some time. Although, those studies alone aren't enough to provide a good basis for applying this method. I have about 15 different equations we can use to define "relative strength" and hundreds we can use to define the direction of a price trend. In fact, there is an infinite number of price "trends": now vs. a second ago, now vs. 10 years ago, etc. Keep in mind, the direction of a price trend isn't the same thing as relative strength. You can probably see why some people have good performance results using relative strength and others don't. Relative strength by itself isn't magic. If someone tells you they "use relative strength", don't forget to take a close look at their track record to see how well they've done it. As with anything in life, it requires skill. 

Trending articles in the Wall Street Journal relative strength.jpg

Source: www.wsj.com JANUARY 5, 2012

We can say the same thing about training at the gym. There is a lot of wisdom that can help you make the best of it to get the results you want. If someone tells you they "use the gym" that doesn't mean anything. Jason Gay offered some wisdom that is true and some of them are very funny. I thought I would add to one. He says:

5. Bring your iPod. Don't borrow the disgusting gym headphones, or use the sad plastic radio attachment on the treadmill, which always sounds like it's playing Kenny Loggins from a sewer.

One of my favorite things is the treadmill or elliptical while listening to a good audio book. I have a subscription to Audible on my iPhone and Bose IE2 earplugs (that also work with the phone). You can listen to great audio books, getting your endorphins rocking physically and mentally. I'm currently listening to Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman. One of my favorites last year was Mindset: The New Psychology of Success by Carol Dweck. If you want to learn about exploiting storng trends, The Little Book of Trading: Trend Following Strategy for Big Winnings by Michael Covel is on audio book. For me, this is my pathway to nirvana. I seem to take in new knowledge this way, and put it back out lounging on the chaise, or sitting by the fire on the patio or out on the boat. 

Mike Shell interview in Investors Business Daily

I recently completed an interview with Trang Ho of Investors Business Daily. Trang did a great job with the article titled "How Mike Shell Uses Relative Strength to Trade ETFs" (click HERE to read it). We discussed some basic concepts about how I apply relative strength in the Asymmetry Investment Program™.

Many people try to apply relative strength / momentum tactics to portfolio management, but when we look at different performance histories of asset managers, we see that some do it better than others. That's because "relative strength" is really only a part of the equation: it's all the other things that I do, such as active risk management, that make all the difference. Read the article to see what I mean.

Directional Trend Following, Relative Strength, and the Math of Loss

There seems to be confusion about the distinctions between a directional price trend, trend-following,  relative strength, and momentum.


Trend following is the tactic of entering a trend in the direction of the trend and staying in the trend until it reverses direction. 


Relative Strength is the tactic of holding stocks whose relative price strength has been "stronger" than others (which could mean losing less than others). 


I drew some pictures to make the distinctions more clear. 


Upward Directional Trends
Ranking the High and Lower Relative Strength (1 = highest, 3 = lowest)

Uptrends High Relative Strength.bmp

 

 

Downward Directional Trends
Ranking Higher and Lower Relative Strength (1 = highest, 3 = lowest) 

 

Downtrends High and Low Relative Strength.bmp

I hope you get the drift...

 

Negative Asymmetric Losses Math of Losses.bmp

Market States and Momentum

 

Market States and Momentum is an important paper that finds the profits to momentum strategies depend critically on the state of the market (up or down trend). 
Abstract
We test overreaction theories of short-run momentum and long-run reversal in the cross section of stock returns. Momentum profits depend on the state of the market, as predicted.  From 1929 to 1995, the mean monthly momentum profit following positive market returns is 0.93 percent, whereas the mean profit following negative market returns is negative 0.37 percent.  The up-market momentum reverses in the long-run. Our results are robust to the conditioning information in macroeconomic factors.  Moreover, we find that macroeconomic factors are unable to explain momentum profits after simple methodological adjustments to take account of  microstructure concerns
in the conclusion:

Overall, our findings of asymmetries conditional on the state of the market complements the evidence of asymmetries in factor sensitivities, volatility, correlations, and expected returns...

 

Market States and Momentum is written by 

 

MICHAEL J. COOPER, 
ROBERTO C. GUTIERREZ JR., 
and 
ALLAUDEEN HAMEE

MICHAEL J. COOPER,

ROBERTO C. GUTIERREZ JR.,

and

ALLAUDEEN HAMEE

Source: http://www.bschool.nus.edu.sg/staff/bizah/CGH_JF_June2004.pdf