Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation is a paper on outcome bias studies. Knowledge of outcome bias is critical to understanding decision-making under conditions of uncertainty and has implications for the theory of rationality.

Outcome Bias in Decision Evaluation

Jonathan Baron and John C. Hershey
University of Pennsylvania

Abstract

Subjects were given descriptions of decisions made by others under conditions of uncertainty, together with outcomes of those decisions. Some decisions were medical decisions made by a physician or a patient, and others were decisions about monetary gambles. Subjects rated the quality of thinking that went into the decisions, the competence of the decision maker, or their willingness to let the decision maker decide on their behalf. Subjects understood that they had all relevant information available to the decision maker. Subjects rated the thinking as better (or rated the decision maker as more competent, or indicated greater willingness to yield the decision) when the outcome was favorable than when it was unfavorable. In monetary gambles, subjects rated the thinking as better when the outcome of the option not chosen turned out poor than when it turned out well. Subjects who were asked felt that they should not take outcomes into account in making these evaluations, yet, they did so. In part, this effect of outcome knowledge on evaluation may be explained in terms of its effect on the salience of arguments for each side of the choice. Implications of these findings for the theory of rationality and for practical situations are discussed.

The bold highlights are mine.

Direct link: http://www.sas.upenn.edu/~baron/papers.htm/judg.html

Baron J. & Hershey J.C. (1988). Outcome bias in decision evaluation. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology. Vol 54(4) Apr, 569-579.