Cyclical and Secular Bull and Bear Markets - Defined
When we speak of Secular and Cyclical cycles, we are defining the trend of the stock market. The difference between Cyclical and Secular trends is duration. However, a Cyclical Cycle is the primary trend of the market. A Secular Cycle/Trend refers to trends lasting several years to decades. Since 1900, there have been about 8 Secular trends. For example, the U.S. stock market has been in a Secular Bear Market since 2000. That is, the stock indexes have cycled up and down over the past decade and today they are below the 2000 peak. Cyclical Cycles (Bull and Bear) are the primary trend swings that occur within that longer Secular Cycle. These cycles may last several months to a few years. For example, the U.S. stock indexes have been in a Cyclical Bull Market since the bear market low March 2009. Prior to that, it was a Cycical Bull from 3/2003 - 10/2007 and then a Cyclical Bear from 10/2007 - 3/2009. This is how Shell Capital defines cycles and trends as the result of having studies the data . Others may have their own way to define and identify directional trends, or they may not have a method at all...
